I know really smart, well-educated scientists who can’t accurately explain basic concepts of evolutionary theory, like natural selection. In fact, most people probably don’t understand it, even if they do accept evolution as an explanation for life.

As science gets more complicated, I think it moves into a space of magic for most people. And systems science is made even more obscure because it is a science of probabilities. The science of global warming is not just poorly explained and clouded with misinformation, it is genuinely hard to understand. Even harder to want to understand it — since the details are mathematical and tedious.

At the Kennedy School of Government, where public policy makers are trained, it was drilled into me that busy people don’t have time to read even a 3-page memo — they need a summary abstract and highlights. They hire aides to examine the details and make recommendations.

So I suppose a scientist aide to a policy maker will be curious about the IPCC reports. But I doubt we can expect the general public to ever fully digest the issues and questions of climate change — public arguments generally boil down to who do you trust to do your thinking for you. Luckily, most people go with the flow — and in this case, the growing consensus is that global warming is a threat that we need to address.

The debate therefore has shifted to “how”? “How” is an inherently political question — involving trade offs of budgetary priorities. But again, policy makers will look to scientists for guidance as to what is an acceptable level of risk…will the general public weigh in on this question? I am genuinely curious how science matters in such debates.

I hope that a change in administration will do us some good - I was a Texas resident when (then Governor) Bush made good on his campaign promise to make every school in Texas a blue ribbon school… by lowering the standards so much that an elementary school in my district with almost a 30% hold-back rate and 4 sexual attacks by teachers on students is now (still) a ‘blue ribbon school’. I’m just glad he didn’t work so hard to keep his presidential campaign promises.

With people _that dedicated_ to education running our country, it’s not so surprising that 1 in 5 Americans think the Sun goes around the Earth: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/30/science/30profile.html?ex=1184472000&en=1a5177950502a289&ei=5070

Great post, great blog.

I blame my fellow journalists for the mistrust. Reporters, particularly on television, present administration denials and caveats as half of the story, for fear of appearing imbalanced. I believe they should be presenting the truth (as they see it), based on the facts.

But people have every good reason to distrust scientists, with so many of them on the payrolls of major corporations, and working in the service of government agendas.

And yet … I’m still hopeful. Call me crazy. But I think sometimes things have to bottom out before they can get better. I know that scientists nowadays are coming out of their ivory towers much more than when I was young. They are speaking out … and trying to help. Maybe a change in U.S. administrations will make a difference as well.

Deborah

I’m glad you linked to curezone - I’d never heard of it, or seen such a huge collection of unmitigated crap. They should change their slogan to “mis-informing and hocking snake-oil.” It’s both reassuring and completely devestating that the people who think global warming is caused by starlight at cosmic positioning also think that AIDS isn’t infectious because oxygen kills HIV, Saturn in retrograde is the cause of colds and constipation because astrology is the major determining factor in daily health, and while smoking tobacco doesn’t cause cancer because “Native Americans never got lung cancer”, getting vaccines and not sweating does.