Comments on: Barbarization scenario unfolding in the Middle East

By: Benjamin Napier

Benjamin Napier — Wed, 25 Jul 2007 23:20:39 +0000

Peace in the Middle east will not occur as long as the muslim is there. If they are not at war with Israel or the west, they will fight each other. It is their religion which means it is their culture and their law. The only possibility of stopping the fighting is to take over the region by force and destroy entire areas when trouble happens. When the folks are more afraid of their conquerors than Allah, they will settle down. Several generations of folks raised never hearing of Allah and the Koran might make some inroads. Other than that, these folks will go on doing what they have for centuries.

Putting Israel back there was a recipe for disaster.

By the way: Democracy is simply mob rule. That is why our forefather’s did their best to see that it never reared its ugly head here. We were to have constitutional republic. Simply put, a rule of law.

By: orionkriegman

orionkriegman — Mon, 23 Jul 2007 22:14:29 +0000

Gretchie, Deborah, and Sglasson,

An important thing to remember when talking about scenarios of the global future is that the scenarios are archetypes, and thus none of them will ever truly “unfold”. At the present time we can see the forces of Fortress World at work in the form of gated communities in the US (a growing trend) and we can see it in the policies of the Bush Administration, or as Eran mentions, the wall being built by Israel.

Simultaneously the forces of Market Forces scenarios are striving to further develop the World Trade Organization, and safe-guard their vision of a globally integrated free-markets. The forces of Great Transition as active too, at this moment in history, as countless citizen-led initiatives for a better world, many of which gather in forums like the recent US Social Forum in Atlanta or the World Social Forum.

At any given moment during this period of rapid planetary transition, different scenarios ascend and others recede as events take shape. Creating an indicator — even a highly subjective one — of progress toward one scenario or another is a difficult challenge. At the Tellus Institute, we are working on this.

In the meanwhile, whether or not a particular scenario is gaining momentum depends on what factors you view as key. Obviously Eran believes the situation in the Middle East is bleak these days, but he is not without hope that we can take action to change the course of events. This is the key thing — the power of human choice to shape the future.

By: Deborah Byrd

Deborah Byrd — Mon, 23 Jul 2007 21:57:05 +0000

Orion, in the middle east and elsewhere, isn’t the Barbarization scenario already unfolding in minor ways? I’m speaking specifically of the idea of a “fortress world,” which I understand is one possible manifestation of that scenario. In the U.S., for examle, when I was young, there were no gated communities. Perhaps gated communities in the U.S. are not an actual example of the Barbarization scenario in action. But it would certainly point to a mind-set of “I will be safe inside my gated community while relative chaos reigns outside.”

What would it take - in the Middle East or elsewhere - to definitively state that this scenario was beginning to unfold?

Deborah

By: sglasson

sglasson — Mon, 23 Jul 2007 21:38:25 +0000

One would hope that the Barbarization scenario is very unlikely and will not happen, but I think in the end the society should work itself out and get to a point of stability, hopefully with bloodshed at a minimum.

By: Gretchie

Gretchie — Mon, 23 Jul 2007 15:24:12 +0000

This is a very disturbing response by Professor Feitelson but not a surprising one. I don’t know what the outcome will be in the Middle East. One must hold onto hope that eventually a peaceful resolution will prevail. So, if the Middle East goes the way of the Barbarization scenario ane Europe would go with the Great Transition scenario, how would the two interact and how would this effect the rest of the world?