Think that the “green” trend is steering the planet towards a renewable, energy-independent future? Don’t be so sure, said a sobering report from the International Energy Agency yesterday.
“The trends in energy demand, imports, coal use and greenhouse gas emissions to 2030 in this year’s World Energy Outlook are even worse than projected in WEO 2006,” the agency warned.
Ouch. The report predicted that energy consumption will increase by 55% by 2030, with much of the demand coming from the rapidly developing countries of India and China. Their energy use is expected to double.
It’s more than likely that this demand will be filled with the fossil fuel sources that are already available namely, coal. Coal is one of the dirtiest burning fuels, but use is expected to jump by a full 73%. China will overtake the US as the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases this year, with India expecting to come in a close third by 2015. And that’s not a rank countries want to win. From Fatih Bitrol, IEA’s chief economist and the lead author of the report:
“This is a very worrying message. China and India are transforming our energy markets. We have a window of opportunity of 5 to 10 years before it becomes unsustainable and irreversible.”
But this same agency, in a statement separate from the WEO report, wrote: “Without access to modern, commercial energy, poor countries can be trapped in a vicious circle of poverty, social instability and underdevelopment.”
It’s a bit of a catch-22.
Currently, the rural poor across the world collect biomass like wood, dung, and agricultural residues, to burn in their homes, a time-consuming activity that also has serious health consequences. According to the Baker Institute Energy Forum, indoor pollution deaths related to biomass kill more people than malaria and tuberculosis, worldwide. And the time it takes to collect biomass (often up to 15 hours a week) and then care for family that are unknowingly ill from the results, make it hard for people to save up for, say, solar panels. It also prevents the women who are responsible for these activities from accessing education.
A report by EarthTrends sums it up: “Energy poverty and underdevelopment have thus become self-reinforcing situations in countries of the developing world.”
For more information: “Cuts Urged in China and India’s Energy Growth”; Energy, Poverty & Society
I would say yes it is possible, if you want people to live like the Amish. I say this because to live “Green” means you have to buy carbon offsets. pay someone to plants trees. Pay carbon taxes and etc. bury your own body wastes like cat, eat your food raw live in caves and etc.
This piles onto the compelling evidence that our planet cannot sustain 7 billion (let alone 9 billion) people living at desired lifestyles. As the developing nations catch up with the rest of us over-consumers, it’s becoming more obvious we’re in overshoot.
We’ve got to attack this unsustainability on all fronts - conserving, switching to cleaner energy sources, seeking stable, sustainable economies rather than the perpetual “more” machine currently running, and slowing the rate of population growth - eventually shrinking our population.
Ignore our addiction to economic growth and the other efforts can’t possibly be enough. The same holds true if we ignore population growth.
I would say- YES, it is possible to be poor and “Green at the same time. Eco nuts people want people to live in cold damp & dark caves which is one way to live entirely “Green”.
Good job Ms. Patterson! Sound work! You bring a fresh voice to the world of science. I continually look forward to each coming blog and earth and sky program.