It must be tough to be the IPCC report. As the definitive climate assessment report, you were labored over for years, slowly and painfully unveiled, and then called “bad news.” Sure, it was a high point when you won the Nobel Prize with Al Gore, but now it’s being said that you’re “overly optimistic.”
That’s the word from a new study published today in the journal Nature. The authors say that reducing global emissions of carbon dioxide is going to be a lot harder than the IPCC report would lead us to believe. The study, titled “Dangerous Assumptions,” criticizes the panel’s scenarios for assuming that the majority of the carbon removed from the energy supply will occur “spontaneously” - that is, through the natural innovation of technology. For example, some entrepreneur will come up with an incredible new water turbine, or a venture capitalist will offer a reward for new solar technology, or research labs will finally come up with a startlingly easy and effective alternative energy source.
But the authors of “Dangerous Assumptions” look at the situation with a slightly different lens. They calculate the need for carbon reduction based on our current fossil fuel technology. As they see it, the appetite for energy is growing, especially in Asia, and we’re still fueling our growth on gas and coal, with widespread adoption of alternative energy way off on the horizon. They call it the “frozen technology” scenario - and they say it provides a clearer view of the carbon-neutral challenge.
True, budgets for research and development for alternative energy are notoriously low in relation to the need, and climate policies are nowhere near as progressive as they should be. The present situation is not looking up. But I’m reminded of Ray Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns - that’s the idea that once the base of technology has been developed, it grows exponentially every year. Kurzweil told me, “People who express pessimism… are ignoring exponential progressions. They just don’t see it, they’re oblivious. If you have a realistic view of the exponential growth, you would be optimistic.”
That is to say, we’re safe to make a few assumptions about progress into the future. But the one assumption that is truly unrealistic is that technology will ever “freeze.” I mean, at least that’s not what’s happening with our climate, and both the authors of the IPCC and “Dangerous Assumptions” would say that’s beyond the stage of assumption.
The IPCC report is a complete crock. There is no anthropogenic global warming identifiable. In fact, it now seems as though the earth is cooling rather than warming.
Anything put out by the UN should be immediately dismissed as claptrap.