Demographers agree that - as a whole - Earth’s population is getting older.
It varies from country to country, of course, with both birth rates and death rates lower in the developed world than in developing countries. But the trend is global and the reasons are not hard to understand. For the most part, fewer children are being born, and people are living longer.
So, for example, a great recent article in the New Yorker called The Way We Age Now, by Atul Gawande, said that in the year 1950 - the year before I was born - children under the age of five were 11 per cent of the U.S. population, and those over 80 were one per cent.
But now - in the United States - there are as many 50-year-olds as five-year-olds. In 30 years, when I will be 86, there will be as many people over 80 as there are under five.
To celebrate World Population Day last year, Earth & Sky’s Jorge Salazar interviewed Joel Cohen, a professor of populations at the Rockefeller University and Columbia University in New York City. Cohen heads the Laboratory of Populations at Rockefeller and Columbia. He said that a mixture of incentives, roles for children, roles for women, education for women, alternative uses for women’s time, infant mortality rates all have contributed to higher fertility for the developing countries.
But, he said, as these countries develop, fertility rates can be expected to decline. Many experts agree that increased education and opportunities for women - plus the trend for a greater percentage of Earth’s population to live in cities, rather than in rural areas - all push fertility rates in a downward direction.
And Cohen also said:
So I think that we have finally outgrown our childhood and adolescence as a species. As a species, we’re learning to be a mature adult, with an older population that’s city-dwelling and not rapidly growing. And I think that’s a wonderful achievement.
I agree with Cohen. Teenagers can be thoughtless, overspend, seem not to care. Young adulthood can be tough, too, from what I can recall of my own. It’s not easy to learn to live in balance with yourself and those around you.
But children do grow up. Is the human species like a child in the process of growing - overspending its resources, seemingly self-centered - but destined to mature eventually? I believe it is. In my mind’s eye, I picture a more mature human species - not perfect, just more mature - in cities with great public transportation and plenty of green space, with more time for friends and family, with not so many people living in need. That could happen, you know.
Read the Joel Cohen interview. It’s fascinating. As a species, we’re learning to be a mature adult.
And read The Way We Age Now, by Atul Gawande. Wonderful and touching.
You can also find information about Earth’s aging population on United Nations sites, such as this one from the UN’s Economic and Social Development division: The Aging of the World’s Population.
Thanks to Island Artist for the photos of hands.
Hi Deborah,
Homo sapiens have been on Earth for thousands upon thousands of years. Presumably it took the human species all of that time to advance to the “adolescent” stage of the individual life cycle. Now, we are told, that in the first half of Century XXI, somehow our species is going to make another advance, this time from the adolescent stage of human development to the adult stage. There are but a mere 43 years in which what looks to me like a remarkably rapid transition is to occur. Do you think you or Joel Cohen could explain how this forward movement is to exhibit itself? How does a “mature adult” behave differently from the ways people like you, Joel and I are behaving now? Are we sensibly advised to “grow up”? What would that mean?
Also, if you and Joel do not mind, can you explain the point of emphasizing the world population is getting older? For the next 43 years, I can see that there will likely be more old people on Earth with each passing year than we have now. That is clear enough. However, if you look at the young age distribution of the human population worldwide between now and 2050, why would a reasonable person want to focus on those who are ageing and not focus on the enormous challenges presented directly and oppressively to humanity now by skyrocketing numbers of newborns that are fully anticipated to join the human community. Do we not expect a 40 /-% increase in the global population between now and the middle of this century (6.7 billion people to 9.2 billion)?
Lastly, what is to happen in the middle of the twenty-first century that will lead to be widely shared and consensually validated belief that the human population on Earth will level off? Presumably, the sexual drives and instincts of human beings in 2050 will not be different from those of their ancestors. How do you think billions of young people on Earth in the 2050 will be expressing their all-too-human sexuality other than in the ways human beings have behaved for the thousands upon thousands of years?
With every good wish to a great lady on Mother’s Day,
Steve
I don’t think we can compare our evolution, if you will, as a species with the life stages on an individual. It’s not a useful analogy. The path of our development as a species may not correspond with the way a single person develops. We have to get out of our anthropocentric way of thinking, and imagine new ways of change.
Eleanor
Hmmm … two comments and both dislike the “humans might mature as a species” idea …
Okay, Steve, you asked a lot of questions, and I’ll try to answer as best I can. I think there are many signs of a remarkable transition to a more mature human species all around us. I think this conversation we are having in cyberspace is one of the signs! A hundred years ago, communications were difficult, but now they’re easy. We’re all connected. I think connecting is an important step in creating a more mature human species.
You asked what it would mean for the human species to “grow up.” Gosh. I don’t know exactly, any more than a child knows what it means to be grown up. But I can imagine - as a child might imagine what adults do - that it has something to do with being responsible to yourself and those around you. Can I fully understand what that sort of responsibility means, as a human being in the year 2007? I think there are people alive on Earth today who understand it vastly better than I do. I think it has something to do with realizing the role of love in our lives: love toward family, friends, countrymen and all one’s fellow humans. I think it has something to do with the fact that humanity and Earth are profoundly linked: we don’t just live on the Earth, but instead we are the Earth. Beyond that, I can’t say what a grown-up perception of humanity would mean.
As for what’s likely to happen in this century to cause population to level off … well, the same thing that’s been happening. Education of women and birth control are two major factors. The shift to a world population that is more urban than rural is another. I want to learn more about population, and then I’ll be able to have a better answer.
Eleanor, why do you feel it’s not a useful analogy? I’m not sure what you mean by getting out of our “anthropocentric way of thinking” … how can we not think in an anthropocentric way about the human species? Tell me what you mean! I’m curious. Let’s talk about it.
Thank you both for your comments,
Deborah
Would birds be afraid of a scent of snakes in a balloon?
I think that comparing our development as a species to the development of a human individual is limiting at best. The next stage, after adolesceence is adulthood. Great, but then there’s old age, and what would that mean?
Plus, if you look at other species on this planet - and right now, Earth life is all we have for comparison - they haven’t developed or evolved or survived by “becoming more mature.”
It’s a poetic analogy, something we can respond to, but it implies that the people in history - let’s take the ancient Greeks - we’re babies, or toddlers compared to us. Does that ring true to you?
Dear Eleanor,
Until Joel mentioned the idea of humanity entering its mature adulthood stage, I had not thought of, or heard top rank scientists speak of, human species evolution in such a way. I am a psychologist. For what it is worth, Joel’s thinking on this subject is neither naturally persuasive nor realistic to me. A blogger in another blog described such an idea as the product of “pipe dream” thinking. I find that the blogger’s words do possess a ring of truth.
Please accept my thanks, Deborah, for courageously organizing the most remarkable and beneficial discussions of humanity’s distinctly human-derived predicament I have found in cyberspace.
Always,
Steve
Steve, it’s my great pleasure to organize these discussions. Thank you for participating.
Eleanor, I see your point. I wouldn’t call the ancient Greeks babies or toddlers. But I suspect the Greeks were a bright pinpoint of civilization in an otherwise uncivilized world. Perhaps we can imagine human civilization evolving toward something better if we consider it as a whole? Average out the ups and downs?
I believe in the idea that all things evolve. I see that in nature and in science … even in astronomy, on the scale of the giant galaxies, on the scale of the universe itself … everything is evolving. Why would human civilization be exempt from this truly universal process of evolution?
Maybe it is a pipe dream. But, if so, it’s a dream I’m choosing to follow … in a sense, I’m choosing to “just say yes.”
But I’m still curious, Eleanor. What’s your idea of what’s happening with the human species? If we’re not evolving toward something better … what then?
Dear Deborah,
I believe we are evolving toward something better. No doubt about that, at least in my mind. But that does not mean human species evolution can be adequately viewed or understood as a process by which our species is to soon arrive at a mature adult stage of development. The idea of maturity, as I understand Joel, appears not to have anything to do with the general evolutionary process.
As ever,
Steve
Steve, ah! Here’s one possible reason we’re not seeing eye to eye. I did not say “soon.”
My first science was astronomy, so I tend to think long-term. Like many, I suspect this century will have some truly serious challenges, especially for those in the developing world. But, unless we do mature as a species - unless we learn to recognize and honor our profound link to the Earth itself - unless we bring our burgeoning population under control - I just can’t imagine how the human species will survive. I know you and I agree on that.
I also think we might be using the word “evolution” differently. I’m not necessarily talking about an actual evolutionary step for humanity … although I don’t think that’s out of the question. For now, though, I’m talking about an evolution in our thinking, much like the evolution from Citizen to Consumer (after World War II) that Orion has spoken about in his blog. I’m talking about an evolution from Consumer back to Citizen … hopefully Global Citizen this time.
I believe the groundwork is being laid for this, on the Internet!
And I think humanity will survive, will bring its population under control and will learn to recognize its link to Planet Earth. A hundred years from now, it will be a very different world, I believe, and a better world. I only wish I could be there to see it …
Deborah
Humanity’s consciousness, awareness of itself and insights about the world, does appear to mature through the ages. We are standing on the shoulder’s of giants — those who came before us did what they could in their age, and we are able to see further because of their efforts. But unlike Thomas Jefferson, no American today would justify owning slaves while speaking of human equality.
The advent of democracy, human rights, women’s suffrage, equal rights for minorities, and environmental awareness, are all indications of our maturing consciousness. Humanity does have the potential to improve upon these ideals, to learn more about systems and sustainability science, and to grow up (so to speak).
Every ecosystem on Earth is impacted by human activity, the choices we make determine the fate of all life. Hopefully we will stop being selfish adolescents, taking what we want without thought for the future. Hopefully we will become mature adults, stewards of life on Earth.
But I agree this analogy isn’t about literal age — as in a maturing population demographically speaking. Nor is it about biological evolution. It is an evolution in awareness, of ourselves and our place in the cosmos.
I agree with Deborah that this evolution is possible. I disagree with the assertion that it definitely *will* happen. I hope it happens. But, nothing is predetermined. It is up to us to make it happen.
Right, not predetermined. But I still have faith …
Dear Deborah,
Yes, yes, I understand your points and have no objections. We really agree on so many things. I am a bit embarrassed to have focussed so often upon what I see as points of difference between us.
Deep within me there dwells a keen sense of foreboding as well as a dynamic urgency that results from what I see, already visible on the far horizon, as an ominous and looming, distinctly human-driven predicament, one that could threaten life as we know it and the Earth as a fit place for human habitation.
Subjecting certain global “overgrowth” activities of the human species to careful, skillful and timely scientific examination appears to be plainly and immediately required of those with expertise in science. Scientists could be unknowingly making one of the most colossal mistakes in human history by not considering good evidence of human population dynamics and the human overpopulation of Earth. Even in the next three to four decades, increasing human enterprise associated with economic globalization and continously growing absolute global human population numbers could become patently unsustainable on a planet the size of Earth.
Scientific investigations related to the scale and growth rate of human consumption, production and propagation activities worldwide appear to be woefully inadequate. As a consequence, silence has ruled over science. Perhaps a sensible case can be made for changing this situation so that where there is now silence, soon there will be open scientific discussions, rigorous scientific inquiries, critiques/interpretations of scientific data, and advancement of scientific knowledge as it relates to the way the world in which live works and to the placement of the human species within the natural order of living things.
If we do not make some changes SOON in our unrestrained consumption, untethered production and unbridled propagation behaviors, then I fear for global biodiversity, original wildlife habitats, wilderness spaces, environmental health, the integrity of Earth and its resources……and, as you put it above, for the survival of our species.
With thanks to all,
Steve
Dear Deborah,
Thanks, yet again, for resolutely being a clear voice for science.
Because you and many other people who are dedicated to science, change in terms of open discussion of good science and intellectual honesty with regard to The Human Population is in the offing. Signs of openmindedness and expressions of support for the apparently unforeseen scientific evidence are surfacing in different places, even though the new, unchallenged evidence regarding the human population is menacing to the Masters of the Universe and their many minions in my not-so-great generation of elders, all of whom are unaccustomed to sharing resources, making changes, and appreciating the importance of maintaining the integrity of the planetary home in which we live.
Always,
Steve
Thank you Steve! Thank you yet again. I actually believes it’s a great privilege to be able to live in a time when such a large amount of change is happening and needs to happen. Especially for those who are young now - and must go on - it’s a time of needing to strive, in a personal way, constantly … all of us just trying hard to do our best.
But, then, it’s possible or even probable that the very act of striving has been part of the human condition all along.
At any rate, I am dedicated to science as an important component of the present and future world. I’m also dedicated to many other things … like connection with each other and the Earth. I believe that, in some profound sense, the way forward is through connection.
Have a great Sunday!
Deborah
Dear Deborah,
Please find just below a link to a trailer for the CALL OF LIFE.
http://www.speciesalliance.org/video.php
Hope you and the E & S Community find something of value in what looks to me like remarkably fine work by some of our most wondrous scientists.
Sincerely,
Steve
Dear Deborah,
Thanks always for the work you are doing.
Please take a look at the link below regarding the CALL OF LIFE:FACING THE MASS EXTINCTION, based upon the work of some of the most brilliant scientists I know.
http://www.speciesalliance.org/video.php
With every hope that telling the truth as it is seen will not look like some sort of strange and revolutionary activity,
Steve