In early September, two normally ice-clogged sea routes in the Arctic Ocean were open at the same time. It’s the first time in recorded history that this has happened.
As I write this, the two routes remain open. The National Ice Center reported September 5 that the Northern Sea Route was open and as of September 11 the agency still classified the Northern Sea Route as open water. This is the third year in a row that the Northwest Passage has been open for part of the summer.
The image (top left) from the National Snow and Ice Data Center shows open water (blue) going all the way around the sea ice (white). The blue open water makes a kind of horseshoe shape from one side of Greenland to the other. The orange line marks the normal extent of sea ice for that day, September 11, for the period 1979-2000.
Later this month, when the summer melting season ends, we’ll learn how much Arctic sea ice retreated this year (so far it’s the second-lowest on record). But it’s remarkable that the two Arctic sea routes — the Northwest Passage north of Canada, and the Northern Sea Route over Europe and Asia — were open (but not ice free) this year.
An article on NASA’s Earth Observatory site notes that this is the first time in at least 50 years that the two passages have been open together. I guess that’s how long we’ve recorded the availability of those routes.
The World Meteorological Organization defines “open waters” as waters with no more than 10 percent sea ice concentration and no ice of land origin, such as icebergs. It’s not clear sailing through these “open waters,” because some ice is still present and conditions can change. In his DotEarth blog, Andrew Revkin reports the chief scientist at the National Ice Center as saying the Northern Sea Route could close in a matter of hours, so sending ships through it was not recommended. In theory you could sail from Greenland west across the top of Canada, north of Russia and Europe, and return to Greenland again. But in practice the route could close up on you quickly.
Still, the fact that these two lengendary passages are open reflects how the Arctic region is changing. Revkin writes that the Arctic is on track to become an open ocean in summer.
Why is so much ice melting? Currents, winds, warmer ocean waters and climate change all play a role in melting Arctic ice. Revkin notes that Arctic experts “hold a range of views on how much of the recent big ice retreats is due to human activities.” It seems reasonable to say that there is likely to be at least some human influence here. We know that the northern regions are warming more quickly than the rest of the globe and that people are very likely causing most of that warming, per the 2007 IPCC reports.
An open Arctic Ocean could attact industry — shipping, oil and natural gas rigs. What do you think about the present melting and what the future holds for the Arctic? Post your comments here!
Update, posted September 18: The National Snow and Ice Data Center reported on September 16 that the Arctic sea ice appeared to have reached its smallest extent for the year on September 12. It was the second-lowest sea ice minimum since 1979 and it reinforces the strong negative trend in sea ice extent over the last 30 years. Learn more at nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
here’s the ‘Big Picture’….unprecedented changes occurring throughout the solar system….Earth is ‘consciously’ transforming herself, that’s why the ‘educated experts’ are so stumped…this is all about ‘ascension’….
3 part investigative report……these are NASA Deep-Space probe & Hubble Space Telescope (HST) photos:
http://www.enterprisemission.com/_articles/05-14-2004_Interplanetary_Part_1/Interplanetary_1.htm
major global paradigm-shattering announcements & events soon
http://paoweb.com/updates.htm …current & archive
One thing that is not noted by the alarmists is the fact that the warmest water is over a recent volcanic eruption. Every extremeist that I have spoken with discounts the effect of massive amounts of heat from a volcano as a reason for the melting. Overall earth temps have been lower for the last few years. Expanlations keep changing as to why stuff keeps changing, but natural cycles while most likely the predominant cause are deeply discounted.
Follow the money. Who is making money on “climate change”? Are those people really doing anything of substance? Why wouldn’t the expansion of concrete and asphalt and the destruction of trees be a bigger effect than CO2? Why is only the last ten years studied? Why are people not discussing the Mideviel warming period? Most do not even admit that there are actual records of vikings sailing the Northwest passage during the medeviel warming. We actually have fairly recent history that says the extremists are full of themselves and not full of facts.
I think that there is little likelihood that this melting has been caused by any atmospheric warming, man made or not.
This year the summer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere were not exceptionally high, nor were they last year, but these have been two years of exceptional ice melt.
The year 1998 was a year of extraordinarily high summer temperatures but there was no unusual ice melt at all.
This is a good indicator that the melt was brought about by the influence of winds and by the intrusion of warm seawater from either the Pacific or the Atlantic.
I find it to be a very disingenuous thing to say, that the ice melt indicates that the atmosphere is warming.
Does a doctor say that the redness of your face indicates that your temperature is high? Not at all, he simply measures your temperature directly with a thermometer. And it is a simple thing to measure the atmospheric temperature where the Arctic ice is melting.
Enough of this reading of entrails; just read the thermometers and tell us what the temperatures are and whether they have dropped sufficiently to melt the ice. If the atmospheric temperature is not high enough to melt the ice then there is no grounds for wagging the head and tut-tuting.
Kent — There are plenty of data and facts out there about climate change. Scientists have actually studied changes back thousands and millions of years. Here’s one recent example:
Earth Hotter Now Than in Past 2,000 Years, Study Says
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/09/080902-hottest-earth.html
Also, deforestation is one large factor that contributes to global warming, along with greenhouse gas emissions from people burning fossil fuels. The reason is that trees soack up carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas. When we cut down forests, we eliminate areas of the globe that had been reducing CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Deforestation and the decay of biomass account for about 1/3 as much greenhouse gas emissions as fossil fuels do. See http://www.ipcc.ch and check out the chart on p.5 of the ‘Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report - Summary for Policymakers.’
Harry — If you check out this National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Web site, you’ll see that last year the globe — and the Arctic especially — experienced higher-than-normal temperatures. See the 2007 global surface temperature anomoly graph here, http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/global-temps.shtml
Note how the Arctic region is colored mostly red, which means temperatures were 2-3 degrees C above the base period mean temp for 1951-1980. The text below notes, in part: “The map reveals that the greatest warming has been in the Arctic and neighboring high latitude regions. Polar amplification is an expected characteristic of global warming, as the loss of ice and snow engenders a positive feedback via increased absorption of sunlight. The large Arctic warm anomaly of 2007 is consistent with observed record low Arctic sea ice cover in September 2007. ”
You can get an idea of how warm some Arctic cities have been by looking at the graph here, http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/climate-temps.shtml
In addition, the ‘Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis’ report from the IPCC noted that average Arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years. This is due to the positive feedback loop noted above.
So your comments are not supported by observational evidence. Scientists have recorded data showing the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe. This warming is one factor contributing to summer sea ice melting, as I noted in my post. The IPCC stated in last year’s reports that the world’s climate scientists conclude that human activities — burning of fossil fuels, deforestation — are very likely (with 90 percent confidence) causing most of the global warming we are seeing. You could look it up.