Dan Kulpinski

Beijing’s air quality may get the most scrutiny from environmentalists when the city hosts the 2008 Summer Olympic Games in August, but the real test for China’s environmental credentials is whether or not green reforms continue after the Olympics.

Beijing wants to remove 60 percent of its 3.3. million cars from the road by August 8, when the Olympic Games begin. To do this, the city has ordered factories to move out, built new subway lines, restricted car use (odd license plate numbers one day, evens the next) and halted construction projects to keep additional dust out of the air.

Some 340 factories in nearby cities are also being shut down.

Despite all this, the air may not be pristine come the opening ceremonies. That’s because demands for electricity and cars have increased right along with pollution controls.

“What’s notable is that in the seven years since they were granted the Olympics, coal use has doubled in China and there are a thousand new cars put on the streets every day in Beijing. So my thought has been, well, they’ve kind of run as fast as they could to stay in place,” said Jennifer Turner, director of the China Environment Forum, an information clearinghouse that is part of the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, D.C.

She told me that when Beijing entered its bid to host the Summer Olympic Games, it went above and beyond the bid requirements and said it would clean up local pollution. Back then, Beijing was vying with Mexico City for the distinction of being the world’s most polluted city.

Starting with the 2000 Olympic Games in Sydney, Australia, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) has required host cities to build environmentally friendly venues for Olympic events. The buildings have to be energy efficient and builders must prioritize the use of renewable resources. The environment is the third “pillar” of Olympism, after sport and culture. The IOC even has a 50-page document detailing its sustainability policies.

“By those criteria, I think Beijing has met it, in terms of the facilities themselves and also where people live,” said Turner. “The Olympic village is a little microcosm of a green area and includes the energy efficiency, the rainwater harvesting, the water recycling. And there’s a little wind farm, Beijing’s first wind farm, supplying parts of the Olympic village. ”

The Olympics and Beijing’s vow to clean up its act have also spurred a boom in infrastructure in Beijing: The city has installed a new light rail system and increased its low-emission natural gas buses and taxis to 80 percent of the fleet. Factories being rebuilt outside the city have to meet stricter environmental standards.

Adds Turner, “And Beijing now has the highest rate of wastewater treatment in China. Nationwide wastewater treatment is about 40 percent; Beijing’s now at 70 and could very well get up to 90 by the time the Olympics come. And if that continues that’s a very good trend, because municipal waste is the largest polluter of waterways in China.”

But some things haven’t changed.

“I think in Beijing and around Beijing there’s been some impact, but it hasn’t really addressed the larger governance issues that are really driving environmental problems in China. It hasn’t changed the fact that local governments are very powerful and protect their industries and don’t enforce environmental laws.”

She said it’s likely that new policies for cleaner air and strict energy efficiency targets won’t disappear after the Olympics. Plus there’s potential for change in some government processes. “There are many more important policies that have been passed over the last five years that have the potential to start really pushing some changes in the governance structure in China around the environment. Pushing more transparency, more public participation,” she said.

Keeping the air clean after the Olympics leave will require controlling cars. “The key is going to be for Beijing, and other cities, is how to limit the growth of cars,” said Turner. Cars are the leading polluter in cities; their emission controls are not as strict as those in the United States.

“Only like 23 per 1,000 people own cars, so it’s nothing compared to the U.S., but at the same time they are so concentrated in the cities, it’s just making it unlivable because of the air,” she said.

One hope is that if Beijing cleans its air up significantly for the Olympics, maybe its citizens will enjoy it so much they’ll press to keep it that way.

Some say the green venues China built for these Olympics will lead the way to a new green era in the nation. What do you think? Post your comments here!

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P.S. — EarthSky just published my interview with Dr. Jonathan Samet of the Johns Hopkins University’s Bloomberg School of Public Health, about how Beijing’s air pollution might affect Olympic athletes. Read or listen to it here.